The ongoing picture of the US jobs market remains one of balance; 4.8m jobs reopening in June but near on 20 million people still out of work. If this month’s jobs report shows anything it shows that for some people normality may resume pretty quickly but for an increasing number of former workers it is going to be a long slog to regain their previous standing.
Wage numbers slid as lower paid employees – those in hospitality or retail jobs for example - rejoined the workforce. Given the recent increases in Covid-19 cases, the ongoing question remains whether these jobs numbers will worsen as local and regional shutdowns are put back into place.
The dollar was weaker in the morning, stronger in the afternoon and finds itself roughly where it was 24hrs ago as we open up today. With the country effectively shut for the Independence Day holiday, the inability for markets to meaningfully hold onto risk over the long weekend suggest that uncertainty over the virus outlook is a factor in these markets. This is not just a meaningless, buy anything rally.